S&P500 Daily Action Areas & Price Targets 13/8/26

***QUOTING ES1! FOR CASH US500 EQUIVALENT LEVELS, SUBTRACT POINT DIFFERENCE***

SPX PUT/CALL RATIO 1.14 (The numbers reflect options traded during the current session.) A put-call ratio below 0.7 is generally considered bullish, and a put-call ratio above 1.0 is generally considered bearish.

GS Flow Desk: large S&P 31Aug 7000/7950 strangle in roughly $20mm vega / $115mm premium …My Read – classic “big convexity versus carry” trade: either someone paid a lot to own a wide August move, or someone got paid a lot to bet that the S&P stays comfortably inside the 7000–7950 corridor

JHEQX Q3 Collar Short Call Cap: ~7,750 – 7,900 - Long Put Strike: ~7,050 – 7,100 (approx. 5% downside protection) Short Put Strike: ~5,950

DEC2025 OPEX to DEC2026 OPEX is 945 points giving us a range of [5889,7779]

WEEKLY BULL BEAR ZONE 7660/50

WEEKLY RANGE RES 7880 SUP 7655

MONTHLY RANGE RES 7838 SUP 7258

DAILY VWAP BULLISH 7769

WEEKLY VWAP BULLISH 7578

MONTHLY VWAP BULLISH 7485

DAILY STRUCTURE - BALANCE - 7820/7724

WEEKLY STRUCTURE - OTFH - 7542

MONTHLY STRUCTURE - OTFH - 7345.75

Balance: This refers to a market condition where prices move within a defined range, reflecting uncertainty as participants await further market-generated information. Our approach to balance includes favouring fade trades at the range extremes (highs/lows) while preparing for potential breakout scenarios if the balance shifts.

One-Time Framing Higher (OTFH): This represents a market trend where each successive bar forms a higher low, signalling a strong and consistent upward movement.

One-Time Framing Lower (OTFL): This describes a market trend where each successive bar forms a lower high, indicating a pronounced and steady downward movement.

DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE 7700/7690

GAMMA FLIP 7762

DELTA FLIP 7771

DAILY RANGE RES 7835 SUP 7698

2 SIGMA RES 7902 SUP 7630

VIX BULL BEAR ZONE 17.9  (VVIX / VIX) 6.08

TRADES & TARGETS 

LONG ON REJECT/RECLAIM DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE TARGET DAILY RANGE RES

***ADDITIONAL SETUPS & TARGETS HIGHLIGHTED ON THE CHARTS***

(I FADE TESTS OF 2 SIGMA LEVELS ESPECIALLY INTO THE FINAL HOUR OF THE NY CASH SESSION AS 90% OF THE TIME WHEN TESTED THE MARKET WILL CLOSE ABOVE OR BELOW THESE LEVELS)

GOLDMAN SACHS FICC & EQUITY TRADING DESK VIEWS

Post-CPI Update — Core PCE Marked Lower, Sept Hike Odds Fall, NDX Vol Compresses Further

The CPI release appears to have been benign enough to lower the downstream core PCE estimate and reduce Fed hike pricing. The immediate macro read is supportive for risk assets:

• core PCE estimate revised to +0.23% from +0.26%

• core PCE YoY now estimated at 3.27%

• market pricing only 38% odds of a September hike

• S&P implied move for the rest of the week only 63bps

• vol desk quiet despite CPI and AI headlines

• NDX vol initially rose, then collapsed as spot firmed

The core message:

CPI did not deliver the hot-print shock that rates markets feared. It lowered core PCE tracking, reduced September hike odds, and restored the “spot up / vol down” regime, but NDX-specific vol has compressed so aggressively that the desk now prefers defined-premium upside call spreads rather than outright long convexity.

1. Macro Read: CPI Lowers Core PCE Tracking

Updated estimate:

The revision lower from +0.26% to +0.23% matters because it suggests CPI details were softer in PCE-relevant categories.

This reduces the probability that the Fed needs to respond hawkishly at the September meeting.

Market pricing now shows:

• 38% chance of a September hike

That is meaningfully below a coin flip.

2. Policy Implication: Inflation Risk Eases, But Not Eliminated

A +0.23% core PCE print is not an outright “inflation is dead” number, but it is manageable.

Annualized:

0.23%×12=2.76%0.23%×12=2.76%

That remains above the Fed’s target, but it is not alarming enough to force an immediate hike if labor and activity data are softening.

The Fed read:

• no urgent need to hike on this CPI

• September remains data-dependent

• next inflation print still matters

• retail sales / labor data will influence the balance

• policy-sensitive assets can breathe

This fits the earlier framework:

If higher real yields are being driven partly by structural AI capex demand rather than cyclical overheating, the Fed does not need to chase the bond market higher with policy rates.

3. Equity Market Read: Risk Assets Get the Green Light, But Vol Stays Heavy

The CPI outcome likely supports:

• equities

• small caps

• duration-sensitive growth

• select Tech / NDX

• gold if yields soften

• cyclicals if growth remains intact

But vol behavior is notable.

Despite CPI and AI-focused announcements, it was a quiet day on the vol desk.

NDX vol was up in the morning but came in hard as the session progressed.

The market reverted to:

Spot Up+Vol DownSpot Up+Vol Down

That means investors did not chase protection after CPI. Instead, event premium decayed.

4. NDX Vol Compression Remains Extreme

The NDX 1-month implied vol spread versus SPX continues to compress.

The note says the spread registered its most dramatic 10-day downside change on a 5-year lookback.

This is important because it confirms a major repricing of Tech optionality.

Earlier:

• NDX futures positioning swung sharply bearish

• NDX single-stock vol collapsed

• investors reduced AI / Tech optionality

• AI baskets lagged ex-AI

• NDX-to-SPX vol spread compressed

Now, even after CPI and AI-related headlines, NDX vol continues to deflate.

The market is effectively saying:

Tech is still important, but investors are no longer willing to pay a large premium for NDX convexity.

5. Why the Desk Likes Short-Dated QQQ Call Spreads

Given compressed NDX vol and upside breakout potential, the desk likes:

• short-dated QQQ call spreads

• out to end of August

Rationale:

• defined premium

• defined downside

• lower cost than outright calls

• benefits from upside breakout

• avoids overpaying for vol

• fits event calendar into NVDA / Jackson Hole

• captures potential NDX catch-up after vol compression and underpositioning

This is a clean expression because it matches the market structure:

• NDX vol is lower

• upside risk remains

• positioning may be light

• CPI did not hurt risk

• AI financing headlines may revive interest

• NVDA earnings are approaching

The trade construction logic:

Buy QQQ Call−Sell Higher Strike QQQ Call=Defined-Risk Upside ExposureBuy QQQ Call−Sell Higher Strike QQQ Call=Defined-Risk Upside Exposure

6. Flow Confirmation

Flows showed several implementations of the QQQ upside play through:

• end-August call spreads

• October call spreads

This indicates investors are beginning to position for NDX upside, but still prefer premium control.

That is important psychologically:

Investors want upside exposure, but not unlimited option premium burn.

So this is not euphoric call chasing. It is more disciplined upside re-engagement.

7. S&P Event Pricing for Rest of Week

The S&P implied move for the rest of the week is:

• 63bps

Using a rough S&P level near 7,728–7,750, that implies about:

7,740×0.0063≈48.87,740×0.0063≈48.8

or roughly ±49 S&P points for the rest of the week.

That is still a relatively contained implied move.

The market has moved past CPI without a vol repricing and is now focused on:

• PPI

• retail sales

• Fed speakers

• NVDA earnings setup

• Jackson Hole

• AI financing developments

8. Post-Bell Earnings

COHR: -5% After Hours

COHR fell around 5% post-bell despite having rallied 8% during the regular session.

Reported:

• beat / guide above

• EPS beat by roughly 7%

The after-hours weakness likely reflects:

• profit-taking after the day’s rally

• high expectations

• guidance not enough versus whisper numbers

• AI/optical sentiment already priced in

• margin / mix concerns possible

This is consistent with the current earnings regime:

Beats are not enough if expectations are already elevated.

CSCO: +2% After Hours

Cisco rose around 2%.

Key details:

• beat / raise

• revenues accelerated to +18% YoY in fiscal 4Q

• fiscal 1Q gross margins guided to 65–66%

• versus fiscal 4Q gross margins of 66.3%

The positive is clear:

• revenue acceleration

• beat / raise

• networking / AI infrastructure relevance

The caution:

• gross margins guided down sequentially

Still, the market treated it positively, likely because growth acceleration matters more than a small GM step-down.

CBRS: -11% After Hours

CBRS fell around 11% after closing up 12% on the day.

Results / guide:

Despite beating and guiding revenue slightly above consensus, the after-hours reaction was negative.

Likely reasons:

• stock had already rallied hard

• gross margin guide down from 41% to 38–40%

• guide not high enough relative to expectations

• event risk around Supernova on August 18

• investors wanted more detail but press release gave no agenda color

The key catalyst:

• Supernova event on August 18

No agenda details were provided, which may have disappointed investors looking for a clearer product / AI catalyst.

9. AI Financing Theme Continues

The note references AI-focused announcements overnight, following the Nvidia US$500bn financing partnership narrative.

This keeps the market focused on:

• vendor financing

• compute infrastructure

• private credit

• data-center debt

• AI capex

• alt managers

• hyperscaler financing

• capital formation around compute

The equity market is currently treating the theme as supportive, but the reflexivity risk remains.

Bull case:

Financing Partnerships→More Compute Buildout→More AI Revenue→Higher EarningsFinancing Partnerships→More Compute Buildout→More AI Revenue→Higher Earnings

Bear case:

Vendor Financing→Financed Demand→Circular Revenue Risk→Future Capex Air PocketVendor Financing→Financed Demand→Circular Revenue Risk→Future Capex Air Pocket

For now, CPI helped remove the immediate rates shock, giving the AI financing narrative more room to work.

10. Tactical Market Setup

Bullish Elements

• CPI lowered core PCE tracking

• September hike odds down to 38%

• vol decayed after event

• NDX vol spread to SPX compressed sharply

• QQQ call spreads gaining interest

• small caps remain sensitive to lower yields

• AI financing theme still active

• S&P rest-of-week implied move only 63bps

Cautionary Elements

• core PCE YoY still 3.27%

• September hike not fully priced out

• real yields remain high

• NDX vol compression could reflect complacency

• post-bell earnings reactions show high bars

• AI-related beats may still be sold if expectations are stretched

• next catalysts remain significant

11. ES / SPX Overlay

The prior ES range was:

• 7724 support

• 7751 pivot

• 7800 range high / breakout trigger

• upside levels: 7820 / 7845 / 7893

The CPI outcome should help ES hold the pivot / upper range bias.

If spot can accept above 7800, the path remains:

7800→7820→7845→78937800→7820→7845→7893

A failure to hold 7751 after benign CPI would be a warning that the market is losing momentum despite macro support.