S&P500 Daily Action Areas & Price Targets 11/8/26

***QUOTING ES1! FOR CASH US500 EQUIVALENT LEVELS, SUBTRACT POINT DIFFERENCE***

WEEKLY BULL BEAR ZONE 7660/50

WEEKLY RANGE RES 7880 SUP 7655

MONTHLY RANGE RES 7838 SUP 7258

JHEQX Q3 Collar Short Call Cap: ~7,750 – 7,900 - Long Put Strike: ~7,050 – 7,100 (approx. 5% downside protection) Short Put Strike: ~5,950

DEC2025 OPEX to DEC2026 OPEX is 945 points giving us a range of [5889,7779]

SPX PUT/CALL RATIO 1.13 (The numbers reflect options traded during the current session.) A put-call ratio below 0.7 is generally considered bullish, and a put-call ratio above 1.0 is generally considered bearish.

GS Flow Desk: large S&P 31Aug 7000/7950 strangle in roughly $20mm vega / $115mm premium …My Read – classic “big convexity versus carry” trade: either someone paid a lot to own a wide August move, or someone got paid a lot to bet that the S&P stays comfortably inside the 7000–7950 corridor

DAILY VWAP BULLISH 7757

WEEKLY VWAP BULLISH 7562

MONTHLY VWAP BULLISH 7485

DAILY STRUCTURE - BALANCE - 7820/7656

WEEKLY STRUCTURE - OTFH - 7542

MONTHLY STRUCTURE - OTFH - 7345.75

Balance: This refers to a market condition where prices move within a defined range, reflecting uncertainty as participants await further market-generated information. Our approach to balance includes favouring fade trades at the range extremes (highs/lows) while preparing for potential breakout scenarios if the balance shifts.

One-Time Framing Higher (OTFH): This represents a market trend where each successive bar forms a higher low, signalling a strong and consistent upward movement.

One-Time Framing Lower (OTFL): This describes a market trend where each successive bar forms a lower high, indicating a pronounced and steady downward movement.

DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE 7740/30

GAMMA FLIP 7770

DELTA FLIP 7720

DAILY RANGE RES 7845 SUP 7709

2 SIGMA RES 7913 SUP 7641

VIX BULL BEAR ZONE 17.9  (VVIX / VIX) 6.01

TRADES & TARGETS 

LONG ON REJECT/RECLAIM DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE TARGET DAILY RANGE RES

***ADDITIONAL SETUPS & TARGETS HIGHLIGHTED ON THE CHARTS***

(I FADE TESTS OF 2 SIGMA LEVELS ESPECIALLY INTO THE FINAL HOUR OF THE NY CASH SESSION AS 90% OF THE TIME WHEN TESTED THE MARKET WILL CLOSE ABOVE OR BELOW THESE LEVELS)

GOLDMAN SACHS FICC & EQUITY TRADING DESK VIEWS

Re-Risking, But Not Into Old Leadership — Vol Panic Collapses as Tech Exposure Gets Cut

August has brought meaningful re-risking, but the key nuance is that investors are not simply rotating back into the same AI / Tech leadership that drove the market before July. Instead, the tape shows growing interest in non-AI trades, a sharp collapse in single-stock implied volatility, and a notable bearish pivot in NDX futures positioning.

The core message:

The market is re-risking at the index level, but beneath the surface investors are reducing Tech / AI optionality and reallocating toward broader, non-AI exposure.

1. Non-AI Has Quietly Beaten AI

Over the past three months:

That is a striking relative-performance gap.

The non-AI trade has delivered:

• positive returns

• lower volatility

• better risk-adjusted performance

• less crowding anxiety

• less dependence on AI ROI validation

The AI trade, meanwhile, has offered high volatility with little net return over the period.

The implied frustration:

AI Return≈0%,AI Vol≈4×ex-AI VolAI Return≈0%,AI Vol≈4×ex-AI Vol

That is a poor risk / reward profile, and investors are responding.

2. Re-Risking Is Happening, But It Is Broader

This is not a classic de-risking episode. August has seen investors putting risk back on.

But the re-risking has been directed more toward:

• non-AI trades

• broader S&P exposure

• cyclicals

• financials / industrials

• defensives with quality characteristics

• laggards outside prior leadership

• potentially ex-US / EM expressions

Rather than simply adding back:

• AI beta

• crowded mega-cap Tech

• high-vol single-stock call exposure

• NDX futures longs

• data-center / AI infrastructure momentum

That matters because it supports the broadening narrative, even while raising questions about the durability of prior Tech leadership.

3. Single-Stock Vol Has Been Aggressively Cut

The options market shows a major shift in how investors are treating single-stock potential.

Average S&P 500 single-stock 1-month implied volatility fell nearly:

• 6 vol points over the last three sessions

In the AI era, larger three-session declines have only occurred after:

• August 2024 volatility shock

• April 2025 tariff episode

But those were very different environments:

So this was not a macro-volatility reset after a crisis. It was a single-stock optionality reset.

That distinction is important:

The market did not move from panic to calm because macro fear collapsed from extreme levels. It moved because investors rapidly marked down the value of single-stock upside / downside optionality.

4. Tech Vol Crush Was Even More Extreme

The move was more dramatic in Tech.

Average NDX single-stock 1-month implied volatility fell:

• 9.1 vol points in three sessions

This suggests investors are aggressively reducing exposure to single-name Tech volatility.

Potential drivers:

• disappointment with AI basket performance

• post-earnings vol event passing

• lower appetite for expensive AI optionality

• rotation into non-AI / broader index exposure

• reduced expectation of idiosyncratic upside surprises

• heavy monetization of single-stock options

• less demand for call convexity in crowded names

This is a meaningful change from the prior regime, where single-stock Tech optionality was central to the AI trade.

5. Vol Panic Index: From Anxiety to No Panic

The Vol Panic Index collapsed from:

• 7.9 in late July

• to below 1

That is its lowest level since:

• June 2024

In less than two weeks, the market moved from elevated anxiety to effectively no panic.

Interpretation:

• July had real concern around AI unwind / momentum stress.

• August re-risking has calmed the surface.

• But the calm reflects lower single-stock vol demand, not necessarily renewed Tech conviction.

• Investors are no longer paying up for stock-specific risk.

This is a very different type of “risk-on” environment.

6. NDX Futures Positioning Has Turned Bearish

NDX futures positioning shows an even clearer pivot away from Tech.

Exposure swung from:

• +$9.9bn

• to -$11.1bn

That is:

• a US$21bn swing

• the largest weekly decline

• the most bearish reading since ChatGPT launched in 2022

This is one of the most important points in the note.

The equity market can be rising while Tech exposure is falling if investors are:

• rotating into SPX ex-AI

• buying equal-weight / broader baskets

• favoring cyclicals

• buying non-US equities

• reducing NDX beta

• hedging AI longs

• expressing risk via less crowded sectors

So the index-level rally masks a significant internal rotation.

7. Market Implication: Bullish Breadth, Bearish Tech Skepticism

The note creates a two-sided interpretation.

Constructive Interpretation

The market is broadening.

Positive signs:

• S&P ex-AI outperforming

• index-level re-risking

• vol panic collapsing

• non-AI trades gaining attention

• lower concentration risk

• potentially healthier market leadership

This supports the idea that the bull market is becoming less dependent on AI.

Cautious Interpretation

Tech / AI conviction is fading.

Warning signs:

• broad US AI exposure flat over three months

• AI vol much higher than ex-AI

• single-stock vol exposure being cut aggressively

• NDX futures positioning most bearish since 2022

• investors skeptical of Tech upside optionality

• potential for AI leadership to lag even if SPX rises

This supports the idea that the market is no longer willing to pay up for AI optionality without stronger monetization evidence.

8. Relationship to the Current Tactical Bull View

This does not necessarily contradict a tactically bullish view on equities.

It actually reinforces the idea that the equity rally may continue through:

• broader participation

• cyclicals

• financials

• industrials

• healthcare

• ex-AI growth

• non-US / Asia ex-Japan

• EM ex-AI

But it complicates the idea of a simple Mag7 / AI rebound.

The current market is saying:

Risk-On≠AI-OnRisk-On=AI-On

or:

SPX Can Rise While NDX / AI Leadership LagsSPX Can Rise While NDX / AI Leadership Lags

That is the major tactical nuance.

9. Options Market Read: Lower Vol Can Support Spot, But Reduces Convexity

The collapse in single-stock vol has mixed implications.

Bullish

Lower implied volatility can:

• reduce hedging costs

• support risk appetite

• encourage systematic re-risking

• signal less panic

• help dealers stabilize markets

• support carry strategies

Bearish / Cautionary

But it can also mean:

• investors are no longer willing to pay for upside optionality

• single-stock dispersion opportunities may be underpriced

• complacency is rising

• future shocks may be less hedged

• Tech upside may require actual earnings / guidance catalysts, not just positioning

In Tech specifically, lower vol means the market is assigning less value to idiosyncratic upside.

10. Why This Matters Before CPI, NVDA, and Jackson Hole

This shift is happening just before major catalysts:

• CPI

• PPI

• Retail Sales

• NVDA earnings week of Aug 24

• Jackson Hole

The market has moved from anxiety to calm quickly, while NDX futures positioning has turned sharply bearish.

That means catalyst reactions could be amplified:

If CPI Is Benign

• yields fall

• broad equities rally

• Mag7 could squeeze if shorts are too extended

• low vol may encourage call buying

• NDX underpositioning could become fuel

If CPI Is Hot

• yields rise

• Tech underperforms

• bearish NDX positioning may be validated

• low vol could reprice sharply higher

• single-stock vol reset could reverse

If NVDA Delivers

• AI skepticism could unwind quickly

• NDX shorts could cover

• AI baskets could catch up

• single-stock Tech vol may reprice higher

If NVDA Disappoints

• Tech skepticism deepens

• AI underperformance extends

• broadening may continue, but index concentration risk rises

• NDX could lag materially

11. Tactical Portfolio Takeaways

1. Keep Equity Exposure, But Broaden It

The market is re-risking, so being too defensive may be costly. But the re-risking is not concentrated in prior AI leadership.

Prefer:

• S&P ex-AI

• equal-weight exposure

• quality cyclicals

• financials

• industrials

• healthcare

• select software

• non-US / Asia ex-Japan

• EM ex-AI

2. Be More Selective in AI / Tech

AI is no longer being rewarded as a monolithic basket.

Prefer:

• hyperscalers with clear backlog / ROIC support

• names with earnings visibility

• software showing AI monetization or resilience

• infrastructure beneficiaries with realistic valuation support

Be cautious on:

• high-vol AI concept names

• crowded single-stock option trades

• names dependent only on multiple expansion

• lagging semis without earnings support

3. Watch NDX Positioning for Squeeze Risk

The move to -$11.1bn NDX futures exposure is very bearish. If CPI is benign or NVDA validates the AI thesis, this could create a sharp squeeze.

4. Low Vol Means Hedge Opportunistically

With the Vol Panic Index below 1, hedges are cheaper. Investors should consider using low implied vol to add protection ahead of:

• CPI

• PPI

• Retail Sales

• NVDA

• Jackson Hole

Bottom Line

August has seen strong re-risking, but not back into the same pockets that led before July. Over the past three months, the S&P 500 ex-AI Index has returned around 8.4% on only 11 vol, while broad US AI exposure is flat despite being almost 4x more volatile. That poor AI risk / reward is now showing up in options and futures.

Average S&P 500 single-stock 1-month implied vol fell nearly 6 points in three sessions, while average NDX single-stock 1-month implied vol fell 9.1 points. The Vol Panic Index has collapsed from 7.9 in late July to below 1, its lowest since June 2024. This was not a macro panic reset — the VIX only reached 20.88 over the past month — but a major repricing of single-stock optionality.

Most strikingly, NDX futures exposure swung from +$9.9bn to -$11.1bn, the largest weekly decline and most bearish reading since ChatGPT launched in 2022. The market is re-risking at the index level, but investor skepticism toward Tech / AI has risen sharply.

The tactical implication is clear: stay constructive on equities, but broaden exposure. The rally can continue, but it may be led by non-AI, cyclicals, financials, industrials, healthcare, and ex-US / EM expressions rather than the old AI leadership alone.