S&P500 Daily Action Areas & Price Targets 7/8/26

***QUOTING ES1! FOR CASH US500 EQUIVALENT LEVELS, SUBTRACT POINT DIFFERENCE***

WEEKLY BULL BEAR ZONE 7400/20

WEEKLY RANGE RES 7635 SUP 7410

MONTHLY RANGE RES 7838 SUP 7258

JHEQX Q3 Collar Short Call Cap: ~7,750 – 7,900 - Long Put Strike: ~7,050 – 7,100 (approx. 5% downside protection) Short Put Strike: ~5,950

DEC2025 OPEX to DEC2026 OPEX is 945 points giving us a range of [5889,7779]

SPX PUT/CALL RATIO 1.15 (The numbers reflect options traded during the current session.) A put-call ratio below 0.7 is generally considered bullish, and a put-call ratio above 1.0 is generally considered bearish.

GS Flow Desk: large S&P 31Aug 7000/7950 strangle in roughly $20mm vega / $115mm premium …My Read – classic “big convexity versus carry” trade: either someone paid a lot to own a wide August move, or someone got paid a lot to bet that the S&P stays comfortably inside the 7000–7950 corridor

DAILY VWAP BULLISH 7721

WEEKLY VWAP BULLISH 7557

MONTHLY VWAP BULLISH 7485

DAILY STRUCTURE - BALANCE - 7820/7656

WEEKLY STRUCTURE - OTFH - TBC

MONTHLY STRUCTURE - OTFH - 7345.75

Balance: This refers to a market condition where prices move within a defined range, reflecting uncertainty as participants await further market-generated information. Our approach to balance includes favouring fade trades at the range extremes (highs/lows) while preparing for potential breakout scenarios if the balance shifts.

One-Time Framing Higher (OTFH): This represents a market trend where each successive bar forms a higher low, signalling a strong and consistent upward movement.

One-Time Framing Lower (OTFL): This describes a market trend where each successive bar forms a lower high, indicating a pronounced and steady downward movement.

DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE 7710/20

GAMMA FLIP 7732/40

DELTA FLIP 7723

DAILY RANGE RES 7799 SUP 7663

2 SIGMA RES 7867 SUP 7595

VIX BULL BEAR ZONE 17.9  (VVIX / VIX) 5.85 

TRADES & TARGETS 

LONG ON REJECT/RECLAIM DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE TARGET DAILY RANGE RES > AUG RANGE RES 7838

***ADDITIONAL SETUPS & TARGETS HIGHLIGHTED ON THE CHARTS***

(I FADE TESTS OF 2 SIGMA LEVELS ESPECIALLY INTO THE FINAL HOUR OF THE NY CASH SESSION AS 90% OF THE TIME WHEN TESTED THE MARKET WILL CLOSE ABOVE OR BELOW THESE LEVELS)

GOLDMAN SACHS FICC & EQUITY TRADING DESK VIEWS

Market Colour — Index Lower, Breadth Better, Mag7 / Momentum Drag, and Earnings Still Doing the Heavy Lifting

US equities ended Thursday modestly lower and near the worst levels, but the index tape understated a much healthier breadth picture underneath. The S&P 500 fell 17bps to 7,723, while S&P ex-Mag7 rose 215bps, with 6 of 11 sectors positive. The weakness was concentrated in mega-cap / momentum / AI-adjacent leadership, while broader cyclicals and defensives held up better.

The key read:

The index paused because Mag7 / Comm Services / high-beta momentum / data centers lagged, but the average stock and S&P ex-Mag7 had a much better day. This is still a broadening tape, not a broad risk-off tape.

1. US Market Snapshot

The divergence is stark:

\text{S&P 500} = -0.17\% \quad \text{vs.} \quad \text{S&P ex-Mag7} = +2.15\%

That is not a typical broad selloff. It is a leadership pause / rotation day.

2. Flow: Buyers Still Present

Flow was not risk-off.

Asset Managers

Asset managers finished net buyers, driven by:

• Macro products

• Tech

Supply was seen in:

• Staples

Hedge Funds

Hedge funds finished modestly net buyers, driven by:

• Macro products

• Financials

This is consistent with the broader tactical view: investors are not de-risking broadly after the ATH push; they are rotating and selectively adding exposure.

3. Leadership Rotation: Broadening Beneath the Index

The market was weaker at the headline level because mega-cap / AI / momentum leadership lagged:

• NDX underperformed.

• SOX fell.

• Comm Services was weak.

• High Beta Momentum fell nearly 3%.

• Data Centers fell nearly 2%.

But broader S&P ex-Mag7 rallied strongly. That suggests the market is absorbing leadership fatigue by rotating into non-Mag7 segments rather than fully selling risk.

The tape has shifted from:

Mag7-led index reboundMag7-led index rebound

to:

Mag7 digestion + ex-Mag7 catch-upMag7 digestion + ex-Mag7 catch-up

That is a constructive broadening signal if it persists.

4. After-Hours Tech: Mixed, but Expectations Matter More Than Beats

After-hours Tech earnings were mixed-to-weak in several high-expectation names.

The important takeaway: after the sharp re-risking rally, “in line” is not enough in crowded or recently re-rated Tech.

This fits recent reactions:

• AMD down despite headline beat

• PINS lower despite revenue acceleration

• SNDK / WDC punished despite not disastrous prints

• APP / HUBS punished for misses or guide-downs

• EXPE rewarded for a clean beat-and-raise

The tape is bullish, but selective.

5. EPS Season: Stronger Than Expected, with AI Infrastructure Driving a Large Share

Q2 earnings remain the strongest support for equities.

Key numbers:

This is the central reason desks remain tactically bullish. Even stripping out mega-cap tech’s equity investment gains, earnings growth is strong at 26%.

The median company is also beating expectations:

12% median EPS growth>9% pre-season consensus12% median EPS growth>9% pre-season consensus

That means earnings strength is not only a Mag7 accounting story, though AI infrastructure is still a major contributor.

6. Siemens: Messy Shape, Strong Electrification, Softer Automation

Siemens’ Q3 print was mixed in composition.

Positives

• Smart Infrastructure / electrification was strong.

• Q3 orders beat by 13%.

• SI orders rose +42% organic versus consensus +24%.

• Sales growth was in line.

• Margins were strong in both DI and SI.

• Free cash flow was very strong, beating by 50%.

• SI guidance was upgraded for growth and margins.

• EPS pre-PPA guidance raised.

Negatives

• Automation / Digital Industries was lighter versus whispers.

• DI orders missed consensus by 1%.

• DI orders were far below Goldman’s estimate, around -10%.

• EPS guidance upgrade was only in line with consensus, limiting upward revision pressure.

Key Siemens Numbers

Read-through: electrification remains robust, but factory automation recovery is not as clean as bulls wanted. The print supports industrial electrification / grid demand but may not drive large consensus upgrades.

7. Rheinmetall: Divisional Beat, but Guidance / Backlog Questions Matter

Rheinmetall formally cut FY sales guidance to reflect lost F126 sales, consistent with the earlier disclosed “up to €300m” impact.

The Q2 operational detail was strong in key divisions:

But the concern is backlog / outlook disclosure.

The slide now shows:

• >€100bn backlog at year-end

Previously after Q1, the same slide showed:

• Around €135bn

The lost F126 order explains roughly €12bn, but there is still an unclear ~€23bn gap.

This is the issue investors will focus on:

€135bn−€12bn=€123bn€135bn−€12bn=€123bn

But updated indication is:

>€100bn>€100bn

Leaving roughly:

€23bn€23bn

not clearly explained.

Read-through: defense demand remains strong operationally, but backlog visibility / order conversion questions may weigh on the stock.

8. Swiss Re: Headline Beat Driven by L&H and Lower Cat

Swiss Re delivered a 10% net income beat, driven entirely by Life & Health.

Group

• Net income beat: 10%

• Insurance revenue: 1% miss

P&C

• Insurance revenue: 2% miss

• Combined ratio: 74%

• Consensus combined ratio: 81%

• Big headline beat driven by lower catastrophe losses

• Cat benefit / provisions delta was about 7 percentage points, exactly explaining the difference versus consensus

• CorSo revenue in line

Life & Health

• Strong net income beat

• Driven by US$107m of positive experience variances in Q2

Read-through: quality of the P&C beat may be debated because it is cat-driven, while L&H looks genuinely strong.

9. NN Group: OCG Beat, Solvency Beat Mostly Methodology

NN Group had a decent headline print, but the quality of the solvency beat is important.

The company updated bank methodology, adding +10 percentage points to solvency. This was offset by model / assumption changes and market effects.

So the solvency beat appears largely bank-methodology related, not purely organic capital generation.

Read-through: operationally a modest beat; solvency optics are better, but investors may adjust for methodology.

10. Deutsche Telekom: Solid, Ex-US Unchanged, Buyback Upside

Deutsche Telekom delivered a solid set of numbers.

Germany

• In line overall

• Decent mobile KPIs

• Fixed net adds light

Guidance

• Raised to reflect higher TMUS guide

• DT ex-US outlook unchanged

• Reiterated EBITDA

• Raised FCF to €20bn from >€19.8bn

• Street was at prior guide

Buyback

DT announced an additional buyback facility of up to €3bn, on top of the existing up to €2bn plan.

Street expectations:

• €2bn modeled for 2026

• €2.75bn modeled for 2027

Read-through: clean enough numbers, with capital return support. The incremental buyback should be well received, although ex-US operating outlook is unchanged.

11. Cross-Asset / Market Implications

Earnings Remain the Anchor

The most important macro-equity fact remains that Q2 EPS growth is tracking well above expectations.

Even excluding mega-cap tech equity investment gains:

\text{S&P EPS Growth} = 26\% y/y

That supports the tactical bullish stance.

But Tech Expectations Are High

After-hours reactions show that investors are demanding more:

• In-line guidance is punished.

• Buyside bars matter more than consensus.

• Misses / guide-downs are punished severely.

• Beat-and-raise still works.

Breadth Is Improving

S&P ex-Mag7 up 215bps while the headline index fell is a major broadening signal.

Momentum Is Still Fragile

High Beta Momentum down 294bps and Data Centers down 193bps show the market has not fully repaired the prior factor damage.

Europe Read-Through

• Siemens supports electrification / grid demand but automation is not clean.

• Rheinmetall shows defense strength but backlog questions.

• Swiss Re and NN point to mixed insurance quality.

• DT offers a solid telecom / capital return profile.

12. Tactical Takeaways

Thursday’s US tape was weaker at the index level, with the S&P 500 down 17bps and the NDX down 83bps, but the underlying breadth was much better. S&P ex-Mag7 rose 215bps, Materials and Healthcare outperformed, and flows showed asset managers and hedge funds were still modest net buyers. This looks more like leadership rotation and Mag7 / momentum digestion than broad risk-off.

Earnings remain the central support for equities. S&P 500 Q2 EPS growth is tracking at 26% y/y excluding mega-cap tech “other income,” or 45% including those gains, while the median company is growing EPS by 12%, above the 9% pre-season expectation. That keeps the tactical bullish case intact.

The caveat is that Tech expectations are now very high. SNDK and WDC were punished despite broadly okay numbers, APP and HUBS sold off sharply on misses / guide-downs, while EXPE rallied on a clean beat-and-raise. The market is still rewarding fundamentals, but only where the bar is cleared convincingly.

In Europe, Siemens showed strong electrification but softer automation, Rheinmetall had strong divisional beats but backlog questions, Swiss Re’s beat was driven by L&H and lower cats, NN’s solvency beat was methodology-driven, and Deutsche Telekom delivered a solid print with additional buyback support.