Institutional FX Insights: JPMorgan Trading Desk Views 12/12/25
In yesterday's commentary, I anticipated USD selling on strength, which materialized despite Oracle's results causing some risk concerns. The USD extended its decline, with all sectors selling USD. With no significant data today, focus shifts to next week’s NFP print, though Powell’s remarks on data reliability add uncertainty. I expect USD selling to persist; dips towards 1.1680/00 are opportunities to add/buy EURUSD.
SEK weakness was notable but not unique to the Krona, as NOKSEK remained unchanged. Despite USD weakness and corporate demand, SEK softness surprised. I added to EURSEK shorts on the rally, leaning against 10.88/90. Swedish employment data showed improvement but will have little impact on the Riksbank decision next week. The break of 10.88/90 suggests a lower range of 10.80/90; I remain short, adding on rallies near 10.88.
Norway’s 4Q RNS is key for Norges Bank forecasts. While oil prices remain a concern, a positive outcome could support NOK in the current risk-on environment. GBP GDP data was weak, especially in services, and the cross reclaimed 0.8750/65. Next week’s data (LFS, PMI, CPI) will be critical. I’m cautious but watching 0.8750 (support) and 0.8800 (resistance). Cable surpassed 1.3360 (support), with 1.3475/25 as resistance.
JPY: Another BoJ story suggests more rate hikes, but markets are unshaken. Fixed income rallied, but USDJPY remains stable. I’m fading dips toward 154.50, with 153.00/25 as a risk point unless NFP surprises. SHF demand for JPY persists, covering recent sell streaks. CHF: The SNB disappointed expectations of a dovish pivot, strengthening CHF. CHFJPY near 200 will test authorities’ resolve. CAD: A dovish Fed saw USDCAD drop to September lows. HF sold CAD heavily, while RM bought. Despite CAD strength, I remain bearish on Canada and use CAD as a funder for EM FX longs.
Disclaimer: The material provided is for information purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. The views, information, or opinions expressed in the text belong solely to the author, and not to the author’s employer, organization, committee or other group or individual or company.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
High Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% and 72% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with Tickmill UK Ltd and Tickmill Europe Ltd respectively. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Futures and Options: Trading futures and options on margin carries a high degree of risk and may result in losses exceeding your initial investment. These products are not suitable for all investors. Ensure you fully understand the risks and take appropriate care to manage your risk.
Patrick has been involved in the financial markets for well over a decade as a self-educated professional trader and money manager. Flitting between the roles of market commentator, analyst and mentor, Patrick has improved the technical skills and psychological stance of literally hundreds of traders – coaching them to become savvy market operators!